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It’s still the economy, stupid

The post-mortem of Donald Trump’s election victory has been marked by new iteration of the “socio-economic anxiety or cultural and racial status anxiety” debate we addressed during the campaign. With new information about how people actually voted, many have insisted that it’s wrong to see a class revolt of the economically left-behind, pointing to exit polls and other polling data showing that Hillary Clinton beat Trump among the lower-paid but lost among the higher-paid. But a proper reading of the exit polls, and of geographic voting data from the actual election, confirm that this was indeed the left-behind striking back.

Take the exit polls first. It is always the case that the Republican party does relatively better higher up the income scale. What is more interesting is the direction of change — the swing in the margin of victory of one side over the other…

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